FL Watches 2 Atlantic Systems For Storm Development

After several relatively quiet weeks for tropical activity, forecasters are eyeing two tropical waves moving west across the Atlantic to see if they organize into storms that could affect Florida.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season runs through the end of November and AccuWeather forecasts “an active final six weeks of the season.”

While one of the waves being watched, which is in the north Atlantic, isn’t expected to strengthen, the easternmost wave has a medium risk of development from Oct. 20 to 24, according to AccuWeather’s hurricane team.

“The tropical wave could start organizing quickly when it reaches the warm waters of the Caribbean with little disruptive wind shear early next week,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said in a news release. The wave will likely bring rain and gusty winds to some of the Leeward Islands this weekend. People across the Caribbean should closely monitor forecast updates throughout the weekend.”

The wave is more than 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands Friday and producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, the National Hurricane Center said.

Gradual development of the system is possible as it moves west at 15 to 25 mph over the next few days, the agency said. It has a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next seven days.

The next named storm for the season would be Melissa.

Whether it develops or not, it’s expected to bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the Windward Islands late this weekend before moving across the Caribbean Sea next week, the NHC said.

Once the system moves into the Caribbean, “atmospheric conditions are primed for a storm to form,” DaSilva said. “The waters are exceptionally warm since the Caribbean has not been disturbed by a single tropical storm or hurricane so far this season. We do not expect much disruptive wind shear in the region early next week. This tropical wave could rapidly organize into a tropical storm or hurricane next week.”

In a social media post, Matt Devitt with WINK Weather in Southwest Florida agreed that “once in the Caribbean, ingredients appear favorable for organization and becoming a potential storm.”

He added, “Can’t rule out a hurricane *if* it can take advantage of those dynamics...one of which being warmer than average water temps right now.”

Beyond that, it’s difficult to tell where the potential storm might head.

“Y'all, the long range track is a mess. They're all over the place as you can see … in European and Google track possibilities,” Devitt wrote. “Some go west into Central America and the Yucatan, some go north into the Gulf and some even go northeast across Hispaniola into the Atlantic. That's why you don't want to believe single models posted 10+ days out showing worst-case scenario runs. Too much uncertainty!”