Tropical Storm Melissa Could Impact VA On Halloween Week: Latest Forecast

When Tropical Storm Melissa departs the Caribbean later next week, the storm could impact Halloween plans as it moves north and brings some rain, rough surf and dangerous beach conditions to parts of Virginia, according to the latest forecasts.

Melissa is forecast to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane over the Caribbean Sea this weekend. The storm poses a historic threat to several island nations, and if it remains offshore long enough, it could potentially reach Category 5 intensity, AccuWeather forecasters said on Friday.

While Melissa is predicted to spend several days in the Caribbean, it will start tracking north later next week, forecasters said. When it does, it could collide with a non-tropical system in the eastern United States, resulting in stormy conditions as far north as New England.

"At this time, the odds of direct rain and wind impacts from Melissa reaching the East Coast are low," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "However, there are scenarios that could bring Melissa closer to South Florida, and at the very least, some indirect impacts from Melissa are anticipated, not only in South Florida but well to the north along the Atlantic coast."

The exact track of the tropical storm will determine whether the mid-Atlantic region receives a smattering of rain over the course of a few days or if it develops into a more major weather event, forecasters said.

"The jet stream dip can generate a new storm, or perhaps a potent nor'easter, along the Atlantic coast toward the end of October," AccuWeather forecasters said. "But even a less-intense coastal storm, when combined with (the tropical storm) offshore, will stir up additional winds and rough seas."

Regardless of how close the storm gets to the United States, forecasters said rough surf, beach erosion and coastal flooding are anticipated along much of the East Coast next week.

"The impacts (of Melissa) will be felt at U.S. beaches hundreds of miles away as the storm moves over the western Atlantic," DaSilva said. "Melissa could wash away tons of sand from beaches already hit hard by tropical storms and hurricanes that passed well offshore earlier this year and from the unnamed tropical storm in early October."

Here's a look at the detailed National Weather Service forecast for Northern Virginia:

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Northwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 42. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Saturday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 60. Northwest wind around 8 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind 3 to 5 mph.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 59. East wind around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57.

Tuesday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 56. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 59. Chance of precipitation is 40%.